JANUARYASIA BUSINESS OUTLOOK9NEWSROOMTRUMP'S TARIFF AND IMMIGRATION PROPOSALS MAY BOOST PRICESThe Israeli security Cabinet approved a ceasefire deal on Friday (Jan 17), paving the way for the return of the first hostages from Gaza as early as Sunday and bringing a halt to 15 months of conflict that have devastated the Palestinian coastal strip.The Israeli-Hamas accord is still conditional on the approval of the full Cabinet, which was meeting on Friday afternoon.The war between Israeli forces and Hamas has razed much of heavily urbanised Gaza, killed more than 46,000 people, and displaced most of the enclave's pre-war population of 2.3 million several times over, according to local authorities.If successful, a ceasefire could also ease hostilities in the Middle East, where the Gaza war spread to include Iran and its proxies - Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and armed groups in Iraq as well as the occupied West Bank.In Gaza itself on Friday, Israeli warplanes kept up heavy strikes, and the Palestinian civil emergency service said 116 Palestinians, almost 60 of them women and children, had been killed since the deal was announced on Wednesday.Under the six-week first phase of the three-stage deal, Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including all women (soldiers and civilians), children, and men over 50.Israel will release all Palestinian women and children under 19 detained in Israeli jails by the end of the first phase. The total number of Palestinians released will depend on the hostages released and could be between 990 and 1,650 Palestinians, including men, women and children.The Israeli Justice Ministry on Friday released a list of 95 Palestinian prisoners to be freed in the first exchange on Sunday.Hamas said in a statement that obstacles that arose on the terms of the Gaza ceasefire agreement have been resolved. Afew days before the president-elect returns to the White House, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, head economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that Donald Trump's economic proposals run the risk of rekindling US inflation.Trump's plans to increase tariffs and restrict immigration will probably limit the economy's supply side and raise prices.He said that other policies the president-elect has proposed, such reducing taxes and red tape, would potentially increase demand and drive inflation. "The bottom line is, when we look at the risk for the US, we see an upside risk on inflation," Gourinchas said.Due to policy "uncertainty," the IMF increased its prediction for global growth and dramatically increased its outlook for the US economy in the WEO update, which did not take Trump's proposals into consideration. Trump and his advisers have resisted the argument that his entire package of proposed policies should help control prices, despite the fact that many economists view his immigration and tariff policies as inflationary.According to CME Group statistics, traders have reduced the amount of rate cuts they anticipate the US Federal Reserve will make in 2025, rating the likelihood that it will make no more than two quarter-point reduction this year at about 80 percent.In keeping with the median prediction of Fed officials polled in December, Gourinchas stated that the IMF anticipates the Fed to lower rates by half a percentage point in 2025 and 2026. ISRAEL SECURITY CABINET APPROVES CEASEFIRE DEAL
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