Mitigating climate risks for Asia-Pacific's resilient future

In the Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024 Launch, Toru Kubo, Senior Director, Climate Change, Resilience, and Environment, Asian Development Bank (ADB), shares his views on the fluctuation in climate change and how it impacts the Asian economy. He highlighted the critical need to combat climate change and adequate steps to mitigate the risk. Following are the key insights:

Developing Asia is both vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and a major driver of greenhouse gas emissions growth. Mitigation must be increased to limit long-term losses, while adaptation must be advanced to address impacts that will not be avoided. Carbon pricing is vital to lowering emissions cost effectively and there is growing support for carbon pricing, including six national Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) being developed in the region, but its effectiveness is hindered by continued support for fossil fuel subsidies.

Climate Crisis in APAC

Climate change has become a serious concern in this modern era, and we have reached a very critical juncture in addressing this defining challenge. Scientists warned us multiple decades ago, and we are now experiencing its devastating impacts: extreme heat, storms, floods, droughts, and rising sea levels, wreaking havoc on human lives and economies globally. Even if we fully implement the current pledges in the nationally determined contributions, we are on a trajectory to at least 2.4 degrees Celsius global average warming by the end of the century. The Asia Pacific region (APAC) has significantly high temperatures. For instance, earlier this year in Manila, the heat index reached 48 degrees, and just a few weeks later, the actual temperature exceeded 50 degrees in Delhi, India. Similar conditions persisted across parts of Central, South, and Southeast Asia. We could be heading for 4 to 8 degrees of warming across the inhabited parts of Asia and the Pacific within the century.

Systematic Approach to Addressing Climate Change

We must shift to a systems approach to address climate and disaster resilience. Enhanced analysis of climate and disaster risks and integrating such risks into development planning and public financial management are crucial steps forward. The Asia-Pacific region generates about half of global greenhouse gas emissions, and scientists warn us that if we exceed 1.5 to 2 degrees average warming, we want increasing risks of triggering tipping points such as ice cap loss, permafrost melt and methane release, forced dieback, significant changes in ocean circulation. However, according to current climatic conditions, nations and societies can cope adequately with a runaway climate change scenario.

Catalyzing Finance

As per the latest IPCC assessment report, we have 500 gigatons of carbon budget left to have a 50% chance of staying within 1.5 degrees and a 90% chance of 2 degrees. That budget was back in 2020, and we are leveraging that budget by 40 gigatons per year. We have 10 years left and need more time to stop the ship from flipping. However, there must be a massive financing gap for adaptation and mitigation. Hence, we must mobilize the vast amounts of private capital into climate solutions and take practical steps.

Policy Frameworks

Governments are critical in creating policy environments and driving financial sector reforms. Creating a price signal through policy alignment is a game-changer for mitigation. Climate change is the biggest market failure in the history of markets. Despite significant damage across nations and generations, there's no global price permitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It is crucial that we have to be extra cautious and urgently look at carbon pricing to redirect and unleash private investment flow. In both adaptation and mitigation, there are many opportunities to enhance energy and food security. For instance, a higher level of resilience to various shocks and creates jobs for the future.