Airtel Payments Bank profits may jump to $1 billion by 2030

Airtel Payments Bank, a unit of Bharti Airtel, is estimated to generate $1 billion (around ₹7,650 crore) in annual revenue by 2030 on the back of an estimated 10-fold jump in its gross transactions value (GTV) and a sharp rise in its monthly transacting user base, say analysts. Airtel Payments Bank, which turned profitable in the September quarter of FY22, currently has a revenue of ₹1,000 crore on an annualised basis.

"Bharti has found a way to generate profit in Indian fintech, and we model Airtel Payments Bank rising to $1 billion of revenue by 2030," London-based telecoms research firm New Street said in a note, adding that APB's current worth is estimated at around $3.5 billion.

The estimated revenue jump, it said, is based on Airtel Payment Bank's GTV growing from 0.7% of Indian GDP now to 2.8% over time, its current base of 32 million revenue generating users rising to 200 million by 2030 and its average revenue per user (ARPU) growing 3% annually. Airtel Payments Bank's GTV was at ₹1.5 lakh-crore ) on an annualised basis in the December quarter, FY22.

CLSA said "Airtel Payment Bank's revenue/ARPU is not consolidated with Bharti as per RBI's mandate despite 100% ownership, but Bharti may look to unlock value of this successful digital pivot". Airtel Payments Bank is 70% owned by Airtel and 30% by Bharti Enterprises. The global brokerage added that "APB's edge versus competition is led by the access and reach of Bharti's 184 million unique users across digital assets and India's largest B2B app for retailers".